For much of this season it appeared somewhat inevitable that Manchester City would retain the Premier League title. At one point, their lead over Liverpool was at 14 points.
However, City dropped points here and there and Liverpool went on an impressive streak, taking all three points in 12 of their last 13 league games. And just like that, the title race is wide open.
Man City maintained its advantage atop the league after the two teams drew 2-2 in an April 10 head-to-head battle billed as a title showdown. Only a point separates the two teams with five matches left to play.
Below is the complete list of those league matches for both Man City and Liverpool, and an explanation of the scenario should the two sides finish the season even on points at the top of the table, which is still a possibility.
FiveThirtyEight gives Man City a 63 percent chance of retaining its title (down from 75 percent), while Liverpool are projected at 37 percent to win it (up from 25 percent in recent weeks). The table snapshot below is updated as of matches on Wednesday, April 27.
| Place | Team | Points | Games | Goals | Goal Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Manchester City | 80 | 33 | 80 | +59 |
| 2. | Liverpool | 79 | 33 | 85 | +63 |
| 3. | Chelsea | 65 | 32 | 67 | +40 |
Manchester City run-in
- Total matches remaining: 5
- Home matches: 2 — vs. NEW, AVL
- Away matches: 3 — at LEE, WOL, WHU
- Toughest match remaining: at West Ham
- Easiest match remaining: at Leeds United
Between a 3-2 home loss to Tottenham on Feb. 19 and a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace on March 14, the dropped points by Man City in recent months have given a steamrolling Liverpool side the chance to get back in the race.
The rest of Man City’s league schedule — with two home games and three away remaining — seems favorable in comparison to Liverpool’s. The final three matches, however, come against complicated sides that have given real tests to opponents this season: Wolves, West Ham and Aston Villa.
| Match | Date | Home/Away | Opponent | Time (BST) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Sat, Apr. 30 | A | Leeds | 5.30 p.m. | 12:30 p.m. |
| 35 | Sat, May 8 | H | Newcastle | 4.30 p.m. | 11:30 a.m. |
| 36 | TBD | A | Wolves | TBD | TBD |
| 37 | Sun, May 15 | A | West Ham | 4.30 p.m. | 11:30 a.m. |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | H | Aston Villa | 4 p.m. | 11 a.m. |
Liverpool run-in
- Total matches remaining: 5
- Home matches: 2 — vs. TOT, WOL
- Away matches: 3 — at NEW, AVL, SOU
- Toughest matches remaining: vs. Tottenham
- Easiest matches remaining: None
Based on the Premier League table to date, Liverpool clearly have a tougher run-in than City given they still have to play a top-five side in Tottenham. Some would argue that matchup is equivalent to Man City’s date with West Ham.
It certainly won’t be easy for Klopp’s team: They have no choice but to keep winning and hope Man City drop points along the way.
| Match | Date | Home/Away | Opponent | Time (BST) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Sat, Apr. 30 | A | Newcastle | 12.30 p.m. | 7:30 a.m. |
| 35 | Sat, May 7 | H | Tottenham | 7.45 p.m. | 2:45 p.m. |
| 36 | Tues, May 10 | A | Aston Villa | 8 p.m. | 3 p.m. |
| 37 | Sun, May 15 | A | Southampton | 4.30 p.m. | 11:30 a.m. |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | H | Wolves | 4 p.m. | 11 a.m. |
Who wins title if Man City, Liverpool finish level on points?
In the event that City and Liverpool finish level on points, the winner will be decided on goal difference.
City currently have a goal difference of +59, while Liverpool’s is at +63. If the teams are level on goal difference, the number of goals scored will come into play. City have found the net 80 times so far, with Liverpool having scored 85 goals.
As outlined on the Premier League’s official website, if the teams are even on both those tiebreakers, then they will be awarded the same position in the table and a share of the title.
