There are places up and down the Premier League table that are hotly contested with just two months left in the season.
Premier League title race
We have a title race on our hands. Manchester City’s lead atop the Premier League table over Liverpool is at four points after the Citizens played and won their match on Saturday. It will be Liverpool’s turn in Sunday’s Merseyside derby.
Chelsea are 18 points back with a game in hand, but they’re essentially out of it. They’re given less than a one percent chance by FiveThirtyEight to win the title, compared to Liverpool’s 35 percent and Man City’s 65 percent chance to win it.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Manchester City | 80 | 33 | +59 | @ LEE, Apr. 30 |
| 2. | Liverpool | 79 | 33 | +63 | @ NEW, Apr. 30 |
| 3. | Chelsea | 65 | 32 | +40 | @ EVE, May 1 |
PTS = Points, GP = Games Played, GD = Goal Difference
Champions League places: Top 4 chase
The race for Champions League berths — only four spots are available and they go to the top four teams in the table — is probably the most fascinating, with just one spot remaining up for grabs.
Man City and Liverpool have officially clinched top four spots, while Chelsea are given over a 99 percent chance to finish there by FiveThirtyEight. The fourth and final Champions League qualification spot is the one everyone has their eyes on. Tottenham and Arsenal are the favorites to claim it, according to projections.
Two massive wins over rivals Chelsea and Man United have boosted the Gunners’ chances from 33 percent to 66 percent. Tottenham were once at 63 percent to finish fourth, but a home loss to Brighton and a draw at Brentford have sunk Spurs to 34 percent. This spot will likely come down to their head-to-head matchup on May 12.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.* | Chelsea | 65 | 32 | +40 | @ EVE, May 1 |
| 4.* | Arsenal | 60 | 33 | +12 | @ WHU, May 1 |
| 5. | Tottenham | 58 | 33 | +18 | vs. LEI, May 1 |
| 6. | Man United | 54 | 34 | +2 | vs. CHE, Apr. 28 |
| 7. | West Ham | 52 | 34 | +8 | vs. ARS, May 1 |
| 8. | Wolves | 49 | 33 | +4 | vs. BRI, Apr. 30 |
* = Teams that finish in 3rd and 4th place join the 1st- and 2nd-place teams in the UEFA Champions League group stage.
Premier League race for European places
In addition to the four Champions League spots, there are three other European berths:
- Europa League (2 berths): One automatically goes to the 5th-place Premier League team, and the other goes to the FA Cup winner;
- Europa Conference League (1 berth): This goes to the League Cup winner.
However, since the FA Cup and League Cup winners will have both already qualified to the Champions League based on their top four finish — Liverpool won the League Cup (Carabao Cup), and one of Chelsea or Liverpool will win the FA Cup on May 14 — the berth automatically assigned to each domestic cup winner is transferred to the next highest team in the Premier League standings that has not already qualified for a European competition.
Thus the Europa League berth that goes to the FA Cup winner will fall to the sixth-place finisher, and the Europa Conference League playoff berth that goes to the League Cup winner will go to the seventh-place team.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.* | Arsenal | 60 | 33 | +12 | @ WHU, May 1 |
| 5.** | Tottenham | 58 | 33 | +18 | vs. LEI, May 1 |
| 6.** | Man United | 54 | 34 | +2 | vs. CHE, Apr 28 |
| 7.*** | West Ham | 52 | 34 | +8 | vs. ARS, May 1 |
| 8. | Wolves | 49 | 33 | +4 | vs. BRI, Apr. 30 |
| 9. | Newcastle | 43 | 34 | -15 | vs. LIV, Apr. 30 |
| 10. | Leicester City | 42 | 32 | -4 | @ TOT, May 1 |
| 12. | Brentford | 40 | 34 | -8 | @ MUN, May 2 |
| 11. | Brighton | 41 | 34 | -11 | @ WOL, Apr. 30 |
| 13. | Southampton | 40 | 34 | -16 | vs. CRY, Apr. 30 |
| 14. | Crystal Palace | 38 | 33 | +2 | @ SOU, Apr. 30 |
* = Fourth place earns a berth in the UEFA Champions League.
** = Fifth & sixth place earn a UEFA Europa League berth next season.
*** = Seventh place will gain a Europa Conference playoff berth.
Premier League relegation battle
With today’s Premier League revenue streams, suffering relegation from the English top flight is a costly proposition. This year the race is tight to avoid the bottom three places and the drop to the second tier.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Norwich City (>99 percent chance) and Watford (99 percent) are locks to go down to the second-tier Championship with five matches remaining for both teams.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15. | Aston Villa | 37 | 32 | -4 | vs. NOR, Apr. 30 |
| 16. | Leeds United | 34 | 33 | -30 | vs. MCI, Apr. 30 |
| 17. | Burnley | 31 | 33 | -16 | @ WAT, Apr. 30 |
| 18.* | Everton | 29 | 32 | -21 | vs. CHE, May 1 |
| 19.* | Watford | 22 | 33 | -36 | vs. BUR, Apr. 30 |
| 20.* | Norwich City | 21 | 33 | -47 | @ AVL, Apr. 30 |
* = The bottom three teams are relegated to the second tier Championship.
The third and final relegation spot will likely be occupied by Everton or Burnley, although the Clarets have made significant progress in that battle.
Burnley has won two games in a row since letting go of manager Sean Dyche, topping Southampton and Wolves in succession to leap out of the relegation zone and put significant pressure on Everton. The Toffees, meanwhile, have slumped down into the relegation zone as a result of a brutal fixture list to end the season, and it doesn’t get any easier.
Everton’s 55 percent chance of going down (per FiveThirtyEight) has now significantly surpassed Burnley’s 27 percent after the Clarets’ most recent surge.
Leeds United (18 percent) are just on the outskirts of the relegation mix, with three wins and two draws under new manager Jesse Marsch helping their efforts to stay up. They’re a comfortable four points removed from the drop zone, but the Whites will have to keep securing results to obtain Premier League safety.
